Final Olympic Team Prediction

Photo Credit-Getty Images

I cannot believe it's already Day 2 of Olympic Trials. My team has changed so much throughout the past year, and now it's finally the time to choose the actual team. Here's my final prediction:

Jordyn Wieber
Aly Raisman
Gabby Douglas
Kyla Ross
McKayla Maroney
Alternates: Elizabeth Price, Sarah Finnegan, Alicia Sacramone

Vault: Gabby, Jordyn, McKayla
Bars: Jordyn, Kyla, Gabby
Beam: Kyla, Jordyn, Aly
Floor: McKayla, Jordyn, Aly

I really feel like McKayla proved herself on floor night 1. She got a 15.2, and even though floor was overscored, it would still be a good score a few tenths lower. She did fall on beam and bars, but those are the two events that we wouldn't be using her on. Sarah Finnegan, on the other hand, had a major error on floor, an event on which we would expect to use her in team finals. I was thinking about putting her on the team rather than McKayla, but Sarah doesn't have much experience and her errors at Nationals and Trials make me doubt her ability to perform under Olympic pressure. I think the other four spots are basically locks; the only one with the slightest chance of being off the team is Kyla, but her bars are so strong that I don't really see a team without her on it.

I'm more uncertain about my alternates. Since I believe that Sarah is very close to making the team, I think she's a very likely alternate. Price made a wonderful case for herself on the first night of trials, and her Amanar is almost as good as McKayla's. She's a great all arounder and I think she'd be a fantastic alternate. The last spot is the one I'm not sure about. I think choosing Alicia for the last alternate spot might just be me being optimistic, but I really do think she deserves a spot. She can be counted on to hit in any situation, even if she was brought in at the last second. However, Martha loves all arounders, so I think a more realistic alternate might be Sabrina Vega. She proved herself at Worlds, and although she doesn't have super high difficulty, she hits her routines and would be solid in a leadoff position.

Well, there it is. I can't believe we are less than 12 hours away from the selection of the Olympic team. It's been a great 4 years, and I wish all the best to the girls competing tonight. The USA is so deep right now, and I think that there are a lot of combinations of teams that would do well in London. I can't wait to see what happens tonight!

2012 Visa Championships Wrap Up

I'm sorry this is so late, but better late than never, I guess! Here we go.

The thing that most surprised me about Nationals was Gabby Douglas' performance. She tied with Jordyn for first on Day 1,and made a very good case for the title on Day 2.  I was really surprised that she came so close to Jordyn even with a fall. I predicted that Jordyn would come out extremely strong on Day 2--which she did--but not as strong as I had hoped. I know that Jordyn has a fierce competitive drive and that she wouldn't accept losing to Gabby a few weeks before Trials. 

Photo Credit-USA Today

At the same time though, Gabby was only 2 TENTHS away, even though she had a fall on beam. It makes sense that Gabby could come out ahead of Aly with a fall, because of Aly's very weak bar set, but I can still hardly believe that she almost beat Jordyn. Again, I'm predicting that Jordyn will come back very strong for Trials. She doesn't like to lose.

Right now, I feel fairly confident in saying that the first four spots on the team will go to Jordyn, Gabby, Aly, and Kyla. Here are some of the things I noted about the people challenging for the last spot:

Sarah Finnegan is the one that most people are choosing for the fifth spot. She is a wonderful all-arounder, and came in sixth even with a fall. I think she could contribute most importantly on floor--she could definitely compete floor in TF.  My problem with her is that bars is her weakest event, and we definitely don't need another girl who is weak on bars. She also doesn't have much experience, so I'm a little bit worried about how she would deal with the pressure. 

McKayla Maroney is another favorite for the fifth spot. I would love to see her take this spot, as I feel that she deserves the chance to take her vault gold. I wish we had been able to see her compete on Day 2, but I think that her floor will be good enough to lead off in TF. She gets solid enough scores on beam as well, and she has Worlds experience.

Photo Credit-Stew Milne

One surprise came from Elizabeth Price. Although she wasn't televised, she came in fifth in the all around. At this point, I think I might take her instead of Finnegan. She's a true all-arounder and she brings in a higher vault and bars score than Finnegan would. They both have very limited experience, so that isn't really a factor in deciding between the two. Lauren Hopkins from The Couch Gymnast wrote a lovely piece about Elizabeth Price, if you'd like to learn more.

I could also see Sabrina Vega being thrown in as a fifth all-arounder for the team. She has more experience than people like Price and Finnegan, and she solid scores on every event. She definitely proved herself at Worlds last year and I think we could count on her to hit on whatever event she was needed. 

Bridget Sloan is another girl that could challenge as an all-arounder. While I wouldn't put her in now, I would not count her out. She shows up and hits at the right times, and I definitely think she'll show improvements for Trials. She also has a ton of experience, which will work in her favor.

Alicia continues to make her case stronger. She only did an FTY for her second vault, but I'm not worried about her there. Her beam is looking very nice, and I really feel like we could count on her to hit and handle the pressure extremely well. I know she wants to redeem herself and I would love to give her that chance. 

I've never been a Rebecca Bross fan, but I do feel sorry for her. She looks so incredibly upset every time she falls on her Patterson (which is, by the way, almost EVERY TIME). I was about to completely write her off in favor of Nastia, but from what we've seen so far, she might actually be more valuable. Her bars are great, but I don't think Martha would consider her now that shes fallen about a million times on beam and hasn't changed anything.

Photo Credit-Heather Maynez

Finally, onto Queen Nastia. I actually think that she'll do well at Trials, but I don't know if two good performances are enough to convince Martha to take her. I love her beam, but that's obviously not what we need. If she comes back with a very strong bars set (with a real dismount), she definitely has a shot. 

Well, that's about it. Only two weeks to Trials!

Olympic Team Ramblings: Part 1

There's been a lot of talk recently among the gym bloggers about possible Olympic teams, especially considering how incredibly deep Team USA is right now.  I've spent a lot of time thinking about this, so I thought I'd share some of my thoughts. Rather than pick a team of just five people, though, I want to name a few people/ideas I've been considering. Because there are so many contenders for the team, I'm going to break it up into a few posts so it's not ridiculously long.

Photo Credit-The Detroit News

First and most obviously, we have Jordyn Wieber. I've said it before and I'll say it again--I absolutely love this girl. I love her gymnastics, I love her power, and I love her determination to be perfect. I don't want to jinx her, but I think she's basically a lock for the team. She would compete all four events in qualifications, and would definitely compete three in team finals, maybe bars too depending on the rest of the team.

Photo Credit-USA Gymnastics

I've been thinking a lot about Alicia Sacramone. We don't know what Alicia's comeback is looking like right now, so I guess I can't make too much of a judgement, but I'm assuming she'll be strong and dependable come Nationals and Olympic Trials. Most people haven't been putting her in their predicted teams, but I would. I think she brings a huge maturity to the team that most of the girls don't have, and since we'll probably be relying on a fairly young squad, I think this would be valuable. If she's in the shape, as I'm assuming, she could easily compete her three events (VT, BB, FX) in qualifications and at least vault and beam in finals (possibly floor too, depending on the team). I really loved her floor routine from 2011 and I think if she keeps it she would have a strong performance.

Photo Credit-USA Today

For me, Alicia's spot on the team is kind of dependent on McKayla Maroney's. I'm very torn about this, because I do strongly feel that McKayla should get a chance to defend her World Championship title. A huge part of me is going: "We have a current world champion! Send her!". It seems unfair to keep McKayla off the team when she's proven she's currently the best vaulter in the world and she could almost certainly guarantee us a gold medal. At the same time, Alicia has a very good shot at the vault gold as well (vault champion in 2010) and has other strengths that McKayla doesn't. We used McKayla on floor at Worlds, which was fine, but Alicia would be better, and would certainly be much better on beam. McKayla came in 4th in Jesolo this past week, behind even new senior Sarah Finnegan, which puts doubts in my mind they would choose her over Alicia--she's just not strong enough all around to make up for Alicia's experience and talents on beam. No matter what, I think it's important to send at least one person who can compete in the vault final--it would be ridiculous if neither girl was on the team and we gave up the medal while two perfectly able girls sit at home.

This seems like enough for one post. Let me know your thoughts and predictions for the team! There will definitely be more posts to follow!